Conflict and Global Food Insecurity (Israel-Iran War)

The series of violent conflicts emerging these days –Israel-Iran war in particular -have me worried about what the state of global food security will be by the end of this year and the ensuing impact.

According to a recent report by the World Food Programme (WFP) “65% of acutely food-insecure people live in a fragile or conflict-affected countries.”

The correlation between food insecurity and conflict is well-documented and established.

Conflict predisposes people to hunger and malnutrition, cutting their physical and economic access to food and also disrupting food production and systems.

In the present day we have seen the impact of conflict on Ukraine in a protracted war with Russia. Ukraine since the rekindled war in February 2022 has experienced a 9% decline in its total cultivated area, recorded an estimated $127 billion infrastructural damage, $34.25 billion agricultural losses (equivalent to 75% of its annual agricultural output) and having 20% of its population currently food insecure.

As Israel and Iran suffer severe damages to the ongoing war between each other there is every reason to believe that both sides could experience increased food insecurity –the warring parties are seeing increasing casualties and destruction of critical infrastructures (road, energy, water, health, etc.) –and it could be much worse for Iran.

Iran has a 92 million population and of which 55.9% (51.6 million) are food insecure, a figure higher than for any other country in the Middle East and West Asia. A sustained conflict, coupled with economic sanctions and inflation already faced by the country, threatens to worsen conditions for the Islamic Republic.

While the conflict impact is expected to be more localized, it could spread beyond borders of the parties at loggerheads. This broader impact thus worries me as much as the immediate impact.

The Iranian population is the 2nd largest of the Middle East and West Asia populations, representing 18% of 507 million and 29% of 314 million respectively. Her 51.6 million food insecure people constitute 27% of the 189 million food insecure Middle East population. Iran’s food insecurity rising thus means the region’s food insecurity statistics automatically rises.

Also, with the Jewish-Persian war prolonging, worsening and drawing outside participation, insecurity in the Middle East could degenerate and exacerbate the already precarious state of food insecurity in the region.

It would be reminded that 7 countries inclusive Iran (Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt) in the Middle East (considering North Africa) experience significant form of food insecurity -Palestine, Yemen and Syria battle acute food insecurity, Lebanon and Iraq face a moderate form, and Iran and Egypt a huge proportion but less severe one. 

Food insecurity for most of these countries is driven largely by conflict, insecurity, destroyed infrastructure, instability and economic crisis.

A full-blown nature of the current Israeli-Iranian war would severely affect these struggling nations and could bring the Middle East to its knee and with ripples in the global economy.     

With the war, economic activities in the Middle East are being sabotaged, flights disrupted and redirected, revenue declining, and consumption power, investor confidence and capital market growth impacted, all informing of an ensuing possible decline in FDI, FPI and GDP.

Also, we have learnt that in a globalized and interconnected world an event somewhere and in a critical place can have reverberating impact elsewhere or even across the globe.

The Russia-Ukraine war contributed greatly to the volatility of grains, fertilizer and crude oil supply chains and energy insecurity, with attendant hike in global price of grains and other foods and elevated food insecurity especially in developing and import-dependent nations.

“Ukraine and Russia account for 28% of wheat, 15% of maize, 66% of sunflower oil and 16% of fertilizer export market in the world. Russia exports constitute 18%, 11% and 20% of global coal, crude oil and natural gas exports.”

Iran a major oil producer hit with economic blockades only get to export majority of its oil to China, however, since Tehran’s major oil infrastructure has been hit production has ceased.

This is not only threatening for the Persian population facing high inflation and unemployment to economic hardship but also to China and (fragile) countries dependent on cheap Chinese goods, especially when China is in a reciprocal tariff war with the US and the latter’s sanction on Russian oil pushing up the oil shipping cost and having China seek alternatives.

Even, Iran is in control of critical shipping route Strait Hormuz “the world’s single most important oil passageway” taking about one-fifth of global oil cargo and other goods. There has never been stronger intent to block the channel by Iran than now, as a leverage.

The proxy fighters of Iran have also threatened the target of critical infrastructure (energy and defense bases) of countries (especially Middle Eastern) choosing to attack Iran on behalf of Israel, shipping vessels sabotage and blockage of the Suez Canal (one of the world’s five major international shipping routes).

The Middle East habours a significant portion of global oil and natural gas reserves and has strategic importance connecting Europe, Asia and Africa.

It therefore means that an escalated war there would not only affect oil and gas production and their shipment, skyrocketing oil price with attendant inflation across the globe, but also unleash insecurity and catalyze migration crisis across regions.

Oil price drives energy cost and with supply chain determine/influence input and production cost in other sectors and of other materials. Increased production cost translates to increased food price.

If the dreaded escalation occur the state of global economy and food security would undoubtedly worsen.

The few days of the current war sent shockwaves across Europe. Aljazeera reported that “European equities drifted down on the news of Israel’s attack, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell a little more than 1.1% at the end of last week while the UK’ FTSE 100 ended 0.5% lower on Friday.”

Analyst experts are concerned that a stretched conflict in the Middle East could compound a normalizing high inflation and living cost in Europe previously driven by the impact of harsh macroeconomic events. This is what is expected for the rest of the world and even more for fragile economies.

This looming crisis comes where gains seen with food insecurity are sliding with about a billion people hungry and the global economies and supply chains rocked back-to-back by Covid19, Russia-Ukraine war, supply chains insecurities in the Middle East, and geopolitical trade and tariff wars.  

Hence, it is important that urgent resolution is reached. How the conflict will be ended is a long road but it must first start with de-escalation of tension and protection of lives and critical infrastructures.

Moreover, justice and fairness must also be pursued and uprooting double standards to achieve a lasting solution. It is abnormal that in the 21st century one country would go assassinate leaders of another sovereign country. Even when for reasons of transgression, there are international laws and mediation courts to seek redress.

While nuclear weapon and weapon of mass destruction (WMD) threaten the existence of the world, one country with nuclear weapon cannot say another cannot have nuclear weapon –they should not have together. A country having nuclear weapon and justifies such for reasons of securing its existence and that it is less likely to deploy it but maintaining another country should not have it arguing the country is more likely to use does not cut it. The moral intent cannot be ascertained.  

Few countries have learnt to rapidly develop their military might and sophisticated arsenals or refuse to dismantle their nuclear programme seeing how weaker countries and the countries that choose peaceful process of denuclearization are treated.

It portrays the failure of the UN to protect weaker and sincere nations and the union’s incapacitated state for some members to assume more power than others and able to do whatever without (fearing) consequences.

In the last 20yrs a number of governments has been forcefully overthrown in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and with irreparable destructions, fragmentation and insecurity lasting today, for rationales which turned out false.

Israel has repeatedly violated the UN ceasefire accord in Gaza and call for protection of civilians in the prolonged Israel-Palestine conflict. The State of Palestine with hardship faced currently has about 100% food insecurity proportion of its population.

This nonchalance and indiscriminate illegal acts deepen resentments and hostilities within the Middle East especially toward hegemonic western nations and Israel perceived to be an illegal occupation alien to the region and forced into it, and as long as these continue cannot bring about enduring peace and stability for the progress of the region and the globe and thus must stop.

Overall, respect for peoples’ sovereignty and not interfering with their lives and political processes and ensuring fairness, equality and justice are nonnegotiable to building peace, stability and cohesion to repositioning the Middle East, to have improved economy, living standard and human development index.

This is not to absolve Iran of many criminal acts levied against it –sponsoring terrorism and engaging proxies for assault purposes, in which there are reasons to believe this could be true –and by all means appropriate discipline and deterrent should be exercised and with right measures which address the real issues and perpetrators but not innocent majority citizens. The country has received so much sanctions and with economic hardship that living and accessing opportunities have been challenging and unfair for its innocent common people. This should not be so.