The whole catfish sector is in distress from inflation and there is bound to be serious effects.

Farmers recently reached a consensus to sell catfish for ₦2,000/kg irrespective of grow-out size as they cannot keep up with a rising production cost, feed in particular.

Price of feed has been soaring but farm gate price for catfish has not been in equal proportion.

Just before the newly agreed price, (in Lagos) a kg of live catfish sold for ₦1,100/kg 29% higher to ₦850/kg it was late 2020, whereas price of a bag of 2mm Blue Crown (one of the cheapest fish feeds) increased by 54% from ₦6,500 september last year to about ₦10,000 today, almost twice the percentage increase of catfish retail price.

Regardless of the different degree to which both are affected by inflation, both show the impact of inflation in the catfish industry.

The pandemic wreaked havoc and still is on supply chains and economies around the world, not only raising cost of foreign feed production but also freight to importing countries which too is impacted by falling value of the naira and increased importing cost.

Situation at home is not any better nor offsetting global impact but rather compounds it. Insurgency and climate change have cut short maize and other vital ingredients supply for local feed-making as substitute, which with increased road tariffs and transport fare, prices of feed ingredients and feed itself keep soaring.

Now, farmers could rely on increasing gate price passing cost burden on to consumers, but this is not sustainable with inflationary forces still waxing strong and purchasing power dwindling. There is a limit to which they can hike price without demand responding appropriately.

While we have no control over happenings on a global scale, we can see to local affairs building capacity and resilience to ameliorate the global crush.

As a matter of urgency, we have to effect sound fiscal and monetary policies to resuscitate and stimulate the economy to contain inflation, subsiding general production cost, raise earnings and purchasing power.

Issues building tension and insecurity deterring farmers from cultivating needed crops essential for feed-making should be sincerely seen to and substantial investment made into the animal feed industry for R&D, production, to breed seeds that yield high in spite changing climate and reinforcing the nation’s capacity to produce quality feeds as the foreign brands, which reduces need for importing feeds.

Of all, farmers should be bailed & supported with intervention funds & subsidized inputs to keep them afloat & committed to production.

If these are not addressed and trends as we see it go on, the true implication then is catfish will become exotic food from being costly with it being excluded as protein source for many that can’t afford it.

With declining demand, farms and feed mills shut down where more people become hungry from losing their livelihood. The effect would be felt in the animal feed and other industries dependent on the catfish sector.

With the worsened food inflation, virtually all protein sources are now costly and not readily accessible.

We do not see the full implication of this. It’s a scary one. And the end result might just be a useful one to some people, suggesting the inflation (with some drivers influenceable) could be intentionally driven, but eventually is bad for everyone.

When I wrote an article about the opportunities in the fish industry Where will you be? I touted fish as a high-quality protein source, unusually affordable, readily accessible, that can help meet the nation’s rapidly growing protein needs, demands.

It made every sense to explore alternative sources since milk became expensive with a technical ban on milk importation and with insecurity, herders-farmers conflict, beef saw a sharp price increase too. Egg and chicken were also affected.

But while I wrote that article, I had worried if fish would not follow the same route with economic effects spilling from those events.

In the article I emphasized catfish as a possible alternative. It’s easy to raise in captivity. The fish species grow very fast and it gives many offspring.

People were increasingly rearing it for these reasons. A good development for a fast-growing population with increasing protein needs and demands.

Sadly, the same fate would meet it. Insecurity, Naira losing value, and inflation drove the price of catfish feed up, which reflected on the retail end. A kg of (1kg size & above) live catfish went from ₦750 to about ₦1,200.

A 60% increase in less than a year. Farmers are now leaving the sector in numbers.

This is that people are being forced to limit, and in extreme cases skip, protein in/from their diets and for their households when all available protein sources have become expensive.

But this implication won’t just be hunger or stunted growth for many. It’s going to be raging chaos, a dysfunctional society, and sabotage on the future of the nation.

While more people will surely join the over 26 million undernourished Nigerians, there’s a scarier consequence.

It’s no news that the nation’s populace is comprised mostly of young people (about 70%). Knowing the break down of this demographic is important.

The age groups 0-14yrs and 15-24yrs form 41.7% and 20.2% respectively (that is, 61.9% in total) of the above 70%.

While these two age categories require protein, it’s critical for the 0-14yrs age bracket which happens to form (about 60 million) the bulk of the young population. Protein is required for them (and for the latter age range) for both proper mental and physical development.

The true implication of all this then is, should these depressing trends continue, we will be raising and should be expecting in 4 or more/lesser years to come, a teeming population of young Nigerians that are mentally and physically stunted and challenged, unable to think upright and for themselves.

It’s important to note -and even makes matters worst -that of the age demographic focused on, 2.5 million of them already battle severe, acute malnutrition, and 41% of the children under the age of 5 are affected by protein-energy malnutrition.

And with the all-around growth and developmental retardation, these youngsters would be useful for politics. When the lower age demographic reaches 18 and are able to vote -and even the other age category, in their challenged state -they are easy to be manipulated, used to score political points, and their mandates stolen with handouts.

We have seen many cases abound in the country where poverty and hunger are wielded as political tools. A carrot-stick approach.

But the end result, as we are seeing in this present time, won’t be any different and could be even worse -a raging mass of young people having nothing to lose and think of, erupting violence and all manners of chaos with no heed to whom turned them so, if not they even consume them.

These young people won’t be able to carry on the next generation just as those above 18yrs who form the remaining part of the young population have been subjugated mentally and physically to be capable of.

At the end of it all, the most painful part will be that the driver of it all is man-made; we made it ourselves. We could talk of covid-19 and climate change effects on the agri-food system, the economy, and in exacerbating insecurity.

But we can’t excuse our ineffective response to them. And the mismanagement of the economy, the insecurity left to fester, misdirected policies, corruption, terrible politics are more a cause and driver.

All these indicators then point to the fact that the fisheries sector, one which consistently forms 3-5% of the total contribution of the agriculture sector (between 20-40%) to the national GDP and with an expanding industrial base of a growing economy demanding more of fish by-products, where average GDP per capita reaches $4,000 pushing purchasing power up, will see tremendous growth into the nearest future.

Note: This article was first published on LinkedIn, March 8, 2020.

Circumstances in Nigeria today and around the world present the Nigerian fisheries sector opportunities to see massive growth, to undertake rewarding heroic cause, and also make it a very good place for investment under agriculture than any other time in the history of Nigeria. Here are four reasons to believe this:

1. The current domestic demand for fish in Nigeria is on the high side at 3.32 million metric tonnes with the nation’s capacity of 1.123 million MT unable to satisfy the demand.

Consequently, Nigeria spends nearly USD 1 billion annually on importation to fill the demand-supply 2.197m deficit, earning her the largest fish importer of the developing world.

This is that the nation having spent an estimated ₦125 billion on fish importation in 2015, seeking to boost her fish production capacity in tandem with the goal to achieve food sufficiency, in the following year disbursed through its Central Bank in conjunction with a domestic financial institution, Heritage Bank, a 2 billion long-term loan which the aquaculture company, Triton Farm, seized to erect a 25,000 MT aquaculture facility.

It makes it evident measures -and even policies -are being put in place to ensure the country reaches food sufficiency level.

Presently the federal government, technically, has banned the importation of food that can be produced in the country by cutting special forex rate that aids their importation in an effort to encourage and foster local food production. The fisheries sector, one very much affected by importation, is expected to benefit immensely from this step.

A huge demand-supply gap, hungry market, entrance ease, coupled with favourable policies and business environment hence offer highly rewarding opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors.   

2. Nigeria’s population has been growing at its fastest, at a rate of 2.6% yearly (although now decelerating), currently 200 million and is expected to double its present state by 2050.

The population is a young one with a median age of 18.1 years. By the end of 2020, 62.9% of this population would be in the age range of 0-24 years.

Aside the concerns of feeding sustainably the overall fast-growing population with the needed food calorie for a vibrant nation, providing the required protein and nutrients in their recommended daily allowance for a teeming young population to enable their proper development and a thriving future generation is another concern for the nation.

For a rapidly growing population whose average per capita protein intake (51.7g) is lower than the FAO’s 60g per person minimum recommendations and with 50% of it extremely poor to access required food protein, fish with its affordable nature and yet high-quality protein provides a readily available energy-protein, animal source, to sustain the projected population size and demographic.

It already accounts for 35-40% of animal protein in the country and nearly 75% in rural region having highest incidence of people living in hunger and poverty.

The demand for fish (protein) in the nation, above 2 million MT, is bound to grow bigger, opening up opportunities for investment and more participation in the sector.    

3. In Nigeria today, there are over 26 million undernourished people (World Bank Development Indicator, latest estimates 2018). Also, about 2.5 million Nigerian children battle severe, acute malnutrition.

41% of the nation’s children under the age of 5 is affected by protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), a malnutrition disorder which occurs due to inadequate calorie and protein intake. Two important forms of PEM are kwashiorkor and Marasmus.

Fish containing a wide variety of nutrients -minerals, vitamins, fat, carbohydrate, water, protein -forms adequate meal/food supplement to prevent and cure PEM.

Fish protein contains essential amino acids (Lysine, Leucine, Valine and Arginine), it is a good source of fat-soluble vitamins (B complex), water soluble vitamins (A, D & E) and also other macro and trace nutrients (Calcium, Phosphorus, Iron, Iodine & Selenium), all vital for proper development and functioning.

It is no surprise the body UNICEF has been experimenting and encouraging in the developing world, substitution of costly milk protein for cheaper and effective alternatives like fish in Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF).

Already, the Federal Government of Nigeria had been tackling malnutrition, disbursing in 2019 USD 1.8 billion for RUTF, and with UNICEF support.

With increasing prevalence of malnutrition, selective forex for milk importation feeding into hike in milk price, and (necessitating) more inclusion of fish protein in RUTF, demand for fish is expected to climb where the fisheries sector drives the moral cause to end malnutrition.

4. Overnutrition is increasingly a common problem in the world and not just in the developed economies where food is surplus, but also in developing countries facing food insecurity.

Nigeria for instance, a nation having 13.4% of her population undernourished, is blighted with obesity epidemic 8.9% prevalence among adults where it takes a gender turn, affecting 25% of women.

In addition, across the world (the WHO monitoring overnutrition), obesity prevalence among adults is reported to be on the rise with half a billion of them obese and over 1.9 billion adults of age 18 and above, overweight; 42 million children under the age of 5 have been classified overweight or obese.

These dangerous statistics bring concern on poor food choices causing health issues like obesity which in turn aggravates serious heart related problems as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases.

There is thus a move towards healthier food options in the world -not just access to food but to a balanced, nutritious one -as reinforced by the SDGs and FAO definition of food security.

With fish rich in healthy fat having omega 3 fatty acid, low in cholesterol and available in a readily absorbable form that prevents the risk of heart-related diseases, fish diets/ingredients are increasingly seen as better alternatives where policies are being tailored to ensure their incorporation in meals and drugs (e.g. Omega-3 supplement).

This encourages investment in the domestic fisheries sector and with opportunities for trade with, export to countries aligned in said policies.

Therefore...if you are wondering where to be in the nation's agriculture sector, that promises a hungry market and a good return on investment, with statistics and projections presented so far it makes sense the fisheries sector definitely is the place to be and with catfish part of the aquaculture sub-sector the best destination.

All these indicators then point to the fact that the fisheries sector, one which consistently forms 3-5% of the total contribution of the agriculture sector (between 20-40%) to the national GDP and with an expanding industrial base of a growing economy (averaging 2% growth rate annually), the largest in Africa, demanding more of fish (raw materials and by-products for glue, cream, oil, drug etc. making) where average GDP per capita reaches USD 4,000 pushing purchasing power up, will see tremendous growth into the nearest future. 

Nonetheless, while the fisheries sector is presented with such opportunities, the fish culture aspect of it will be the main driver to utilise these opportunities and yield returns.

Fish culture was not only the game changer in the sector, it made possible the increase availability of select-fishes available for various special purposes today without sustainability and environmental issues.

Across the world the practice of fish capture in water bodies has been stagnating (see Fig 1) and even declining in some regions, owing to issues of fish scarcity with catching frequency exceeding population regeneration level, environmental degradation and climate change, and consequently, with government regulations.

Fish culture made it possible to grow to maturity, the same fish species in artificial water containment and even in greater numbers, faster and sustainably.

Also, when fish culture is being talked about, catfish rearing is the single most important activity that has made fish culture increasingly common and readily practiced today in this part of the world.

It is not only because catfish delicacy is highly sought for its palatability and healthy, beneficial properties and uses, but also for reasons of its ease of production, rapid maturity, high fecundity, adaptability and profitability compared to other fishes.

Fish culture is the fastest growing livestock production in Nigeria where catfish aquaculture part of it has grown, more than any other sub-sector of the fish culture unit, by 721% between 2001 and 2015 from 19,518 tonnes to 160,295 tonnes [data presented is for only African catfish (Clarias gariepinus), and was reached from a 2001-2012 time-frame rare assessment of catfish aquaculture in Nigeria by the Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources, African Union, and of a 2016 report on Nigeria Catfish Industry by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (see Fig 2)], which forms half the nation’s overall 316,727 tonnes aquaculture by volume. With addition of the production of other catfish hybrids overtime, catfish’s total contribution to the Nigerian aquaculture sector rises to 80-90%.

Therefore [to answer the question posed in the beginning of this article] if you are wondering where to be in the nation’s agriculture sector, that promises a hungry market and a good return on investment, with the statistics and projections presented so far it makes sense the fisheries sector definitely is the place to be and with the catfish part of the aquaculture sub-sector the best destination.

Catfish industry contribution to the economy has not only been in the form of providing needed food, protein for food security, raw materials to catalyse industries, but also generating employments, revenue and foreign earnings for government and income for farmers.

Based on the 2016 FAO’s catfish production figure (adapting metric of the earlier AU-IBAR report where every catfish production tonne generates an employment) jobs created by catfish sector (for African catfish) equals approximately 200,000, more than 300,000 jobs considering other hybrid species and would have leveled 1 million today (adjusting for growth overtime).

In the same report, the sector saw a USD 1.3 billion domestic earning, where value-added products of the fish destined for international markets constituted 7% of the estimated USD 284,390 million total fish exports earnings.

Engaging in the sector is thus contributing to the growth and development of the country. What then are the lucrative aspects of the industry that can be invested?

There are three distinct part of catfish aquaculture across the value chain:

1. Breeding:

This involves the breeding of catfish fish seed stock (from eggs to fries, fingerlings, juveniles and even post-juveniles) for grow-outs production.

It is usually done in a hatchery, where catfish brood stocks are artificially induced with hormones to produce eggs.

There is a huge demand-supply gap for catfish fingerlings in Nigeria. There exist in the nation a demand of more than 4.3 billion. Only 55.8 million of this is being met. This provides opportunity for investments, and with good returns.

Under ideal conditions a good brood stock can give up to 60,000 eggs/kg where survival rate to fingerlings can be 75% with standard and properly managed nursery system.

Fingerling is sold for ₦15 while post-fingerling ₦20. Thus if 45,000 fingerlings or post-fingerlings survive from 60,000 eggs, that is ₦675,000 or ₦900,000 returns respectively, in the expectation that cost of production would be subtracted.

The extent to which one profits then depends on the capacity to which one can produce, successfully manage production, and also access market.

2. Production:

It entails the raising of fingerlings, juveniles, post-juveniles -whichever of them one decides to start with -to maturity.

There are different mediums for intensive production; earthen pond, concrete pond, with other innovative ponds; plastic pond, metallic pond and concrete pond.

All support catfish rearing till maturity, but the earthen pond offers a natural habitat advantage which enables catfish attain exceptional sizes and weights, although with its own cons too.

Catfish reaches table size in 4-6 months when well fed with the needed, quality feed. In this time period, with proper feed and favourable conditions they attain a weight range between 0.5kg to 2kg.

Catfish is sold in range of ₦500-₦800/kg (varies with location). A 1000-stock with 10% mortality attaining an average weight of 1.5 kg each would yield at ₦650 mean price, ₦877,500 (that is, 900 x 1.5kg x ₦650).

The main costs here are feeding and pond construction, where new pond is built. As for breeding, production profitability also is dependent on capacity of production and to access market and in addition, cost expended on feeding.

Catfish raised in Tarpaulin Pond, ready for market

Credit: Iceberg Agricultural Consult Ltd

3. Value addition:

This is the process of adding value to catfish through processing, preservation, addition of flavours and other beneficial nutrients, and packaging.

It helps to command good price in the market and even access a high paying market.

Also, it extends the shelf life of catfish produce and, with quality preservation and enhancement, allow for accessing foreign markets.

The key processes are degutting, filleting, washing, salting, cutting into preferred sizes or folding into a round shape and smoking by oven, adding special nutrients which could also be preservatives but edible, and then packaging.

The value-added catfish products are sold at retail outlets, food stores, even on online retail stores, where collection points are around the country.

A kg of packaged smoked catfish can go as high as ₦4,500 (6-9 times price for the same kg of live fish, although it would take more of the latter to reach the same kg, result of weight loss to smoking).

Moreover, there are huge untapped markets abroad, in China, Europe and USA; however, required high quality standards are to be adhered to.

Smoked catfish’s price in the international market is between USD 30 and 40/kg. It is reported by the Food and Agriculture Organisation that smoked and dried fishes with retail value of about USD 20 million are exported to the United Kingdom annually from West Africa and of the 500 tonnes equivalent, Nigeria accounts for one-eight.

Despite the high demand for catfish delicacies, the profitability and the ease of engaging in any of the three distinct stages of catfish value chain, many people who have gone into production still encountered failure and/or have struggled to break-even and have left business. Two factors top reasons for this:

1. Market/Marketing:

A lot of people who enter catfish value chain do not make market well informed decisions, they simply follow trend of what is in vogue or listen to hearsay of how a particular part of catfish production is lucrative and then commit to production.

While there may be demand for catfish everywhere in the country, the level of demand and even need might not necessary be the same for different regions; even a market with good demand might require different strategies.

Imagine joining a market that has a good demand for catfish but where enough research was not done to realise there are already many primary producers with established markets and high entry barrier, whose aggregated produce causes glut and force down price.

If enough market research were done, the best decision would be to produce what differentiates one from the other producers -perhaps focusing on processing one’s catfish and targeting high end customers like food stores.

Even when one still wants to be involved in primary production, with the understanding of a saturated market rather than selling to final consumers like the competitors, one would know to find different customers and even high paying ones like restaurants, hotels, schools.

Thus, when production decision is not market-led the producer with no reliable market is left to sell at lower prices, leave fishes in the pond while they are still being fed, or left to die and money burn/investment waste. The bottom line is, many people do not bother to know their market in-depth, analyze it and, on that basis, decide what to produce, what strategy to deploy, and have their market before production. 

2. Professional knowledge and Management skills

In-depth knowledge that has to do with everything about catfish value chain or the part of the value chain one is interested in is very important for the success of the envisaged venture.

For instance, for catfish grow outs, knowledge of the different growing mediums to be able to select the best, where to site the fishpond, the requirements (water quality, stocking density) is vital.

Also important is the knowing of the best fish seed stock to use for production, the daily activities and occasional maintenance, the required and best feeds and practices.

Knowledge of all this allow for a successful raising of catfish from fingerlings to table size with little mortality.

Many people have unknowingly procured and raised runts/bad stocks that do not grow or take time to grow while feeds are being wasted on them, have raised catfish in the wrong medium, stocking density, conditions and have realised high mortality. 

Or imagine starting a hatchery business with little or zero knowledge about it where mortality rate at the early lives (as fries) of catfish is up to 80% and sometimes 100% if care is not taken. Or processing and packaging catfish for export with inadequate grasp of the value addition processes and the quality standard required for exporting.

The United States on March 1st, 2018, banned smoked catfish export from Nigeria for the breach of the required certification standard. 40% of smoked fish export from Africa to US and EU are detained, confiscated or returned due to this reason, which is a massive loss on investment made.

Thus, it is very important before engaging in any stage of catfish value chain to first make effort to gain the necessary knowledge and skills –they can be gained from farms of those already practicing -so as to enable a smooth operation and ensure profit on investment to be made.