Are Africans paying attention to El Niño and the potential impact on food production and security?
I’ve observed that the rainfall in Nigeria this wet season and especially in the south has been regular and more than the previous year.
My belief is that the climate is healing and rainfall is becoming regular as it used to be.
But with the rainfall restoration, across Nigeria, there have been episodes of flash floods and yet warnings of impending floods and extreme heats in several states.
I’m scheduled to have a conversation on Indo-Africa bilateral relationships this Saturday with Himani Chandel, a Chevening scholar from India. And I increasingly think about El Niño.
Few years back the climate phenomenon had impacted India’s grain production and an embargo was placed on rice exports to maintain domestic availability.
India is the world’s second largest rice producer and accounts for over 40% of globally traded rice. The action impacted the rice market and especially in Africa and Nigeria, India being the nation’s single largest rice supplier.
Now, there’s urgent alerts of super El Niño. Northern and Central India hubs of significant agricultural productions are projected risk areas. But this time, Nigeria is warned could experience El Niño effects too and especially in the northern region of the country where major food production occurs.
El Niño alters rainfall patterns and raises temperatures, causing severe droughts, delayed rainfall, torrential downpour and heavy flooding, significantly disrupting farming systems and with attendant destructions of farming investments.
While the Nigerian Meteorological Agency has clarified that the current severe weather patterns in Nigeria are driven by local climate variability, not active El Niño conditions, the heat waves and flash floods match those of El Niño.
El Niño supercharges local climate systems -makes hot weather hotter and rainfall more torrential. Could what I experience of southern Nigeria weather -Lagos -be of El Niño influence?
Even if not, global reports warning of El Niño and for Nigeria needs to be taken into consideration. Imagine El Niño compounding the dry spell and flash flood driven by local climate variability warned by NIMET.
One thing everyone agrees upon is that there is need for timely, preventive measures. How has Nigeria prepared for the predictions by NIMET and is preparing for the global El Niño alerts?
India overcame the devastating impacts of El Niño on its grain production through a highly coordinated mix of securing domestic supply, advanced irrigation infrastructure and smart farming, and proactive extension and credit support to promote irrigation and technology adoptions and cushion disaster risks.
What appeared to be a challenge was well managed and the country emerged with record grain production, export earnings, and trade surplus in similar periods.
Nigeria has a lot of mouths to feed and hungry and cannot afford not to be proactive. The time for action is now!