I have been following the tomato scarcity and price hike issue in the nation and deemed it important to weigh in based on what I know and also as a media person to inform the audience, being baffled with the incomplete information given and measures pursued and wanting to clarify issues directing focus to what is not being seen/addressed.

Before going on, I must say that I am disappointed and it is shameful, that Nigeria Africa’s second largest tomato producer after Egypt and even with great potential to produce higher, faces this level of tomato crisis.

Based on a latest report done in 2020, we produce about 3.7 million metric tonnes of tomato annually from an estimated 845,000 hectares.

For context, Egypt that we immediately rank after produces 6.73 million tonnes of tomato from just cultivating 20% of the hectares we farm.

Our yield per hectare is very low and could be higher (to somewhere above 30 million MT) if we took productivity seriously –by adopting hybrid and potent inputs, good agronomic practices and technology driven farming.

However, that is not the case but Nigeria with its current production figure would still be able to 100% meet a domestic demand of 2.2 million MT.

This also is not the case either with 50% of our produces wasted. That is 1.85 million metric tonnes (almost equal to what we produced in 2013) and which leaves a deficit of 450,000 MT but yet portrays we can satisfy 80% of our demands.

Meanwhile, some sources report our production figure to be 1.8 metric tonnes and with a 700,000 metric tonnes deficit, similar to what we had in 2013.

This is confusing in that the reported stat in 2019 and 2020 were 3.7 million MT and 3.8 million MT respectively and has one wondering how our production could have fallen by 2 million MT in 4 years.

Amidst this confusion, what seems true is that our tomato output had dropped from a highest peak of over 4 million MT in 2015 to 2.6 million MT in 2016 and although stilled soared but never to the highest peak attained, with the data from 2017 to 2021.

Either the 1.85 million MT output presented is old and of 2013 or that our production had plummeted. Nonetheless, the declined output from 2015 coincides with a rising insecurity challenge in that period and the current output low in comparison to the highest peak reached is possibly of the insecurity aftermath among other factors.

If we were to settle for 1.85 million MT, our capacity to meet domestic demand would be 68% and if we considered a 50% wastage, then the capacity is effectively halved to 34%.

If on the other hand we are producing about 80% of our needs but have this level of crisis, then something could be wrong with the data presented or the wastages reported are not accurate or that our harvests are going to what we are not paying attention to.

Whichever of the data we choose to follow, that which is a fact is that we have a big issue with data -not only absence of current data (none for 2022 and 2023) but also contradictory available data.

It is one of the problems we have pushing our tomato demand-supply gap. We do not know our actual production figures, and this does not help with appropriate planning and decision making.

Nevertheless, aside a low productivity we have come to know, wastage is a leading reason we have the tomato crisis.

Eradicating this hence is crucial and it requires understanding how such level of wastages occurs in the first place.

First is that these wastages begin on the farm where produces spoil/rot on farm to different factors.

The minister of agriculture recently informed that pest infestation is responsible for the present tomato scarcity and price hike we find ourselves.

This is true but to some extent with pest invasion wielding a huge impact but is not the sole causal factor.

The chief pest is the Tuta absoluta (destructive larva stage capable of 80-100% damage to tomato plant and fruit). In fact, the pest emerged in the nation in 2015 razing 80% of tomato farms and has been reported to have single-handedly driven tomato price by 500%.

With such history of the pest in Nigeria, it is expected that robust preventive and protective measures must have been established with knowledge gathered over time of the pest’s lifecycle and pathogenicity.

This did not occur and rather the pest would resurge last year after period of dormancy destroying over 300 hectares of farms and causing loss of about ₦1.5 billion.

The excuse of pest infestation for tomato this year is not tenable especially with signs and warnings from previous year’s virulence.

Irrespective, the ministry must urgently deploy state extension to production communities to support them with effective knowledge from research unit and inputs to curb said pest.

It should leverage traditional and new media and communication modes closer and accessible to farmers to rapidly disseminate beneficial information that helps with awareness of pest, preventive and eradicative measures, to stem the load and spread of the pest in focus.

As regards wastages of tomatoes on farm, insecurity, flood, a lack of access to market, storage and preservation facilities are also culprits.

I have mentioned it several times in my writings, insecurity is a leading cause of our food insecurity. Farmers have blamed insecurity to be responsible for 50% of their production losses.

What we have is that farmers in fear of terror attack flee their farms leaving produces on farm to rot. This reduces cultivated lands. And in other cases, farmers pay levies to bandits to access their farms and hence are not free to produce at a scale they should and with cost added to retail price.

When the impact of every year flood from dam opening in Cameroon that is not prepared for is considered, then the losses compounds, and farmers have learnt to stop production until they can comfortably commence.

Still at the farm end is a case of absence of or inadequate access to storage and preservation facilities and a lack of knowledge on processing techniques to prolong shelf-life of produces.

Tomatoes are highly perishable by nature and the above not present when farmers have produced beyond demand (of not adopting demand/data-driven production) with glut in the market does not help.

The agriculture ministry must come up with a robust data capturing process for the different agricultural commodities, activities and entities and make production enhancing insights available to farmers.

It must also establish an innovation complex system in collaboration of important stakeholders in the sector to facilitate affordable and operational preservation facilities to farmers and equipping them with simple preservation and processing techniques (making tomato in powder, air/sun-drying tomato).

The Dangote tomato processing facility has been struggling to operate and tending to shut down when it cannot access a 1,200 tonne daily tomato feed stock. People cannot buy tomatoes because it is scarce. But 50% of our tomatoes goes to waste. How do these things come by?

When you add how much tomato feed stock the Dangote facility would require in a year 438,000 MT and with a domestic demand (2.2 million MT) that is just a million lesser than the tomato we produced in 2020. Moreover, this just 20-60% of our tomatoes that are wasted.  

There is obviously an inefficient distribution and market linkage problem, and we are not thinking broader beyond fresh produce.

A whole lot of products is in the tomato value chain, paste, puree, juice, sauce, etc. The $1billion we spend on importing tomato paste yearly is enough to justify that.

Establishing farm-market-processor linkage and encouraging value addition would help to cut postharvest losses, meet demand, and unlock several value chain opportunities trapping earnings within.

It is why the ministry and federal government must urgently aid to expedite the reality of the special agro-industrial processing zones (SAPZ), where we have clusters of hubs linking all value chain participants and providing farmers with inputs required for productive venture.

Lagos state for instance has been creating food hubs fortified with preservation facilities providing market and storage for fresh produces and preventing spoilage and wastage. The FG wants to task states to adopt and execute such ideas.

Now advancing beyond the farm, wastages occur and most of postharvest losses with poor handling and transportation.

The raffia basket is still being used for storing and moving tomatoes on farms and in markets across the nation. These baskets bruise and damage tomatoes, accelerating spoilage, especially when stacked on one another and carried carelessly.

If you have been to MIle12 in the past you would see a river tomato puree and fathom the handling and wastage talked about.

I do not know about now, but I suspect things could be better with the adoption of crate for storage there I have been seeing on the net. But the reality check is, if it was that bad in such organised market and in Lagos, what would be for many unorganised and unsupervised market across the country?

The agriculture ministry should push for full scale adoption of the plastic crate and other innovations helping for proper handling and moving of fresh produces, encouraging such through incentives and flexible acquisitions.

Also, across our highways from the north down to the south are frequent sightings of broken down and tipped over haulage vehicles with contents thrown on the road, for many reasons –commonly of bad roads and vehicles and the produces spoiling having spent days on the road with vehicles not equipped with refrigeration equipment.

Adequate and alternative provision for safe and timely transportation of fresh produces has to be ensured.  

Actually, rail and air cargoes for moving agrocommodities are well overdue and private bodies should be allowed to participate in the service provision.

The menace of hooligans and officials across the roads harassing and delaying haulage vehicles forcefully taking illegal and multiple levies must be seen to.

In 2023, an official in the transport sector had lamented that it “cost ₦1.3 million to move 30 tonnes of food items from Kano to Lagos” paying permits and other illegal fees. This should not be.  

These actions many times serve to add to cost of food provision to consumers in addition to a costly nature of inputs for food production.

The issues are there are and clear and not isolated. It not just a case of pests. We must address all of them if we are to have a way of out the tomato crisis.